Mad Happy từ Synyukhyn Brid, Mykolaivs'ka oblast, Ukraine

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12/22/2024

Dữ liệu người dùng, đánh giá và đề xuất cho sách

Mad Happy Sách lại (11)

2019-01-20 08:31

Cụm Động Từ Tiếng Anh - Phrasal Verbs Thư viện Sách hướng dẫn

Sách được viết bởi Bởi:

** spoiler alert ** The primer to heuristics and biases. Short and to the point. No experimental info. Good writing. Engaging. Step one. You have both a biased experience upon which to draw and a biased memory of that experience. Quotes: "I take the position that research - not anecdote, not "plausible" belief, not common sense, and not our everyday experience - should be the basis for understanding and evaluating our decision making." "abandon the self-attribution process altogether. "Shut up to yourself about yourself. What you say might be a trap, and it probably isn't true anyway." "The resulting value function is steeper for losses than for gains." (It hurts more to lose a dollar than to gain one, also the average of two expected utilities is closer to zero than the expected utility of the average. Think about the s curve.) "Organizations often search through the set of possible alternatives until they find one that satisfies an aspiration level, and then they terminate their search...satisficing - as opposed to optimizing." "The consideration of all relevant possibilities and consequences involves decision costs, which are very difficult to integrate with the costs and benefits of payoffs." "Do not propose solutions until the problem has been discussed as thoroughly as possible without suggesting any." "Probability estimates are often based on the degree to which characteristics are representative of schemas or other characteristics, and that such representativeness does not necessarily reflect an actual contingency." "How prevalent is his category? Such a judgment invites the evaluation of base rates, independent of the characteristic." (Availability bias) "When we have experience with a class of phenomena those with a particularly salient characteristic are those that most readily "come to mind" when we think about that class. It follows that if we estimate the proportion of members of that class with whom we have had experience and who have that characteristic, we tend to overestimate it." "While memory from our experience is introspectively a process of "dredging up" what actually happened, it is to a large extent determined by our current beliefs and feelings." (Narrative bias) "By viewing consequences as inevitable results of choice, we create a phony coherence in our experience, and if we believe in that coherence too much, it offers a poor basis for making decisions about the future." (Hindsight bias) "People who know the nature of events falsely overestimate the probability with which they would have predicted it." "The most common anchor, of course, is the status quo." "When we concentrate on scenarios, we develop a false sense of security by taking precautions against them." "Focusing policy on affecting the thoughts, motives, and feelings of the present leaders of a competing nation is a mistake. It is ignoring base rates in favor of dubious individuating information." "A final objective is the "10,000 Frenchmen can't be wrong" one. Experts have been revered - and well paid - for years for their "it is my opinion that" judgments. As James March points out, however, such reverence may serve a purely social function. People and organizations have to make decisions, often between alternatives that appear equally good or bad. What better way to justify such decisions than to consult any intuitive expert, and the more money she or he charges, the better. "We paid for the best possible medical advice" can be a palliative for a fatal operation, just as "throwing" the I Ching can relieve someone of regretting a bad marriage." "If 36 people have an intuitive feeling that the next roll of the dice will be snake-eyes and are willing to bet even odds on that hunch, on the average one will win. That person is the one most likely to come to our attention; for one thing, the others probably won't talk about it much." "When presented with the very same handwriting samples twice, the graphologist made totally inconsistent judgments." "The most effective method of attacking a belief based on plausibility is not presenting disconfirming evidence, but rather providing a new plausible hypothesis."

Người đọc Mad Happy từ Synyukhyn Brid, Mykolaivs'ka oblast, Ukraine

Người dùng coi những cuốn sách này là thú vị nhất trong năm 2017-2018, ban biên tập của cổng thông tin "Thư viện Sách hướng dẫn" khuyến cáo rằng tất cả các độc giả sẽ làm quen với văn học này.